Using a combination of political geography and geopolitics, it is easy to see that the group of countries north of the Arabian Sea share a number of common features. Parts of modern Iran and Afghanistan represent historical Khorasan, and the Pashtun belt stretches from Afghanistan into Pakistan. Pakistan and Iran are united by Baluchistan (both countries have separatist Baluch movements actively sponsored from outside).
All three countries are Islamic states. The first to gain independence from Britain was the Islamic Republic of Pakistan in 1947. After the victory of the Islamic Revolution, Iran also shifted from the monarchical system to the Islamic Republic (with a specific institution of the Vilayat al faqih); and Afghanistan in 2021 became an Islamic Emirate again. And in time immemorial, they were all part of the Sassanid Empire. Each country has many more interesting cultural, ethnic and religious features.
Although Afghanistan is landlocked, it is organically adjacent to the southern part of the Eurasian coastal zone, the control over which has long belonged to the Anglo-Saxons directly or indirectly. It should be recalled that the term Rimland as well as Heartland was introduced by the British geographer Halford Mackinder. While the northern Heartland of the “world island” that includes Eurasia and Africa was Russia, Rimland encompasses both continents, including the Mediterranean Sea.
Makinder was more concerned with the role of the Heartland, while the American geopolitician Nicholas Spykman believed that the Rimland was more important because the main population of the continents was concentrated along the coasts of the seas, and foreign trade and communications were carried out mainly through sea routes. And the water route itself along the coasts of Iran and Pakistan is the historical route by which the Arabs came in contact with India and China, establishing a fairly strong system of links.
It is indicative that the spread of Islam in the countries of Southeast Asia was carried out precisely through this water route with the help of traders. Unlike the land mass, where the spread of religion was often synonymous with war, Islam came to Southeast Asia by peaceful means. And, of course, at the moment these communications, coupled with coastal strongholds (from naval bases to deep-water ports and terminals), are a serious strategic asset whose control means economic and military advantages. Add to this Iran’s hydrocarbons and Afghanistan’s large reserves of various minerals.
The situation is now shifting toward continental integration and multipolarity, so it is important to support the integration processes and security of the region. This requires the development of a balanced integrated strategy and an understanding of the interests of all three actors in the region. This is also extremely important for Russia, because Iran and Pakistan have access to the warm waters of the Indian Ocean. And against the backdrop of the ongoing conflict with the West, the reorientation towards the Global South and Global East should be carried out at a systemic level.
Iran, of course, is of greater interest, since the North-South international transportation corridor has already started working, although not to its full potential. Since Russia is connected to Iran directly through the Caspian Sea and also through the Republic of Azerbaijan, this makes bilateral interaction much easier and more effective than the hypothetical use of transportation routes through Pakistan (here, at least two transit states—Afghanistan and Turkmenistan—lie on the way to the Caspian Sea, and by land there are at least three, whether it is a border crossing through Afghanistan or China). In addition, a route to the Arabian Peninsula and the East Coast of Africa opens up through Iran. This means access to the economically powerful Arab monarchies and the potentially attractive African market, where Russia’s presence is already growing, especially in the part of the Sahel belt—the Heartland of the black continent. Therefore, maintaining the level of strategic relations and their development for Russia is of serious importance and opens good up prospects.
On June 25, 2024, it became known that a new comprehensive cooperation agreement between Iran and Russia was ready. Both the Russian and Iranian sides have stated that there are no obstacles to its conclusion. This means that our relations will reach a new level. Since Iran is also a member of BRICS and SCO, and has a free trade zone agreement with EAEU, which was finally ratified in June 2024. This is expected to increase the volume of trade deals between the countries by 30-40 percent. In addition, Iran also expects to receive swap oil and gas supplies from Russia.
The continuity of the foreign policy line, as well as the main imperatives of the domestic policy, give reason to believe that Iraq will continue its active participation in building a multipolar world and strengthening regional security. Even due to the death of the President and the Foreign Minister of Iran in a transportation accident in May 2024, all political processes have not been suspended and there is no reason that with the new head of government of the Islamic Republic, the ideological and geopolitical approach of this country to world affairs will somehow change. What is important is that Iran, like Russia, is also establishing relations with Afghanistan.
All three countries face similar present-day threats—ISIS (banned in Russia), which was responsible for the terrorist attacks at the Crocus City Hall and more recently in the Republic of Dagestan, as well as Western powers that are interested in undermining both Russia and Afghanistan.
As mentioned, Afghanistan has significant potential for mining and even oil, gas and nuclear power. Almost all its known deposits were discovered back in the days of Soviet geoscientists, but have not been developed due to the complex conflict-genic situation for decades. Barites, zinc, lead, uranium, coal, iron and copper ore, tungsten, silver and gold, tin, lithium, limestone, aluminum and many other elements of the periodic system of Mendeleev are found in the depths of Afghanistan. Their development can begin in the near future. In addition, Afghanistan is a market for consumer goods and a major producer of agricultural products. We should also pay attention to the potential of various highways, be it the Trans-Afghanistan Transport Corridor or the rather long-standing project of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline. Participation in their construction and further exploitation may give Russia good dividends in the future.
Pakistan is also important for the geopolitics of southern Eurasia. It is no coincidence that the United States has been insisting on political control over it since the 1950s. Washington is still trying to maintain its influence over it, partly through the IMF, which has enslaved Pakistan with its loans, and partly through manipulating the narrative about the Indian threat (it is indicative that for India, American advisors have similar fears about the “Islamic nuclear bomb” and the Chinese threat). Pakistan is now implementing a key element of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which starts from the deep-water port of Gwadar in Baluchistan province and stretches northward across the country to the mountain ranges of the Hindu Kush.
Pakistan is interested in attracting more investors for this and other projects from Russia. The country’s leadership recently said Islamabad would join the use of the North-South corridor and is considering acceptable options for Russian companies to enter Pakistan.
Earlier, Russia signed a memorandum on the construction of the Pakistan Stream pipeline, although negotiations on various details are still ongoing. Pakistan’s energy hunger can also be satisfied by nuclear energy, as Rosatom can offer optimal solutions in this matter.
Finally, Russia’s mediation in improving relations between India and Pakistan could also bear fruit, and Moscow has offered its services in this area before, especially when there has been an escalation on the border. Interaction with Pakistan in the field of counter-terrorism is another area where constant and trustful contact between the competent authorities of the two countries is needed. It is important to note that Pakistan is a nuclear power and its participation on the side of the multipolar world will be significant.
And with all three states in the south of Eurasia, it is necessary to work out issues of circumventing the sanctions of the collective West. They are all, to a greater or lesser extent, familiar with the blocking of funds and various manipulations for political reasons.
A more consolidated approach in this regard will allow everyone together and individually to feel more confident in the global financial system, with the most correct alternative seen as a transition to its own mechanism of transactions to avoid dependence on the dollar/euro, and the passage of financial streams through Western clearing centers. There is a possibility that such a mechanism will be presented at the BRICS summit in October. At least, there are reports that Russia and China have already worked out the main features of the new payment instrument, which will be used both for traditional banking and digital currency transactions.
As we can see, while bilateral relations with each country individually are important, a more comprehensive picture and consideration of various aspects—from religion and culture to security, economy and industry—will allow for a better strategy over the long term.
This article appears through the kind courtesy of Geopolitika.
