The recent move of American and Saudi warplanes striking targets in Iraq, followed by the plume of smoke over Saudi oil facilities, are not merely the latest headlines in a perennial conflict. They represent the final, desperate convulsions of a dying regional order. Saudi Arabia’s decision to join the United States in launching strikes inside Iraq, while simultaneously facing a renewed threat from Yemen’s Houthis, is not a strategic masterstroke. It is a fatal miscalculation born of an inability to accept a new reality: the Middle East is no longer America’s to police, and the days of the US-Israel-Saudi axis dictating the region’s fate are numbered.
For decades, the strategic architecture of the Middle East rested on three pillars: the undisputed military hegemony of the United States, the security of Israel, and the wealth and deference of the Gulf monarchies. That architecture is now in ruins. The 2026 US National Security Strategy, while not explicitly abandoning the region, signaled a clear recalibration of priorities, mentioning Israel only six times and privileging transactional geopolitics over values-based alliances. This shift from a strategy of “defeating” Iran to one of “managing” it, as evidenced by the recent US-Iran memorandum of understanding, has left allies like Israel and Saudi Arabia scrambling for relevance. As the Asia Times recently noted, Israeli policymakers have been “slow to reckon with the erosion of US organizing power” , a blindness that Washington is now exploiting.
Saudi Arabia’s Self-Inflicted Wound
Saudi Arabia’s current predicament is a textbook example of this strategic blindness. For months, the Kingdom wisely sought to remain on the sidelines of the expanding conflict. Yet, it now finds itself “surrounded,” facing threats from Iranian-backed forces in Iraq, Yemen, and directly from Iran itself. The joint strikes with the US were a gamble to reassert deterrence, but they have only served to confirm Saudi Arabia’s status as a target rather than a victor.
The kingdom’s economic lifeline is being severed. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, Riyadh relied on its east-west pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. But the Houthi blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb strait has now trapped this alternative route. The strikes were a desperate attempt to guarantee freedom of navigation, yet they risk escalating a conflict with a ruthless and resilient adversary. The Houthis, who weathered a devastating Saudi-led bombing campaign for years, are more interested in exacting concessions than in a military defeat. Saudi Arabia, with its gargantuan Vision 2030 economic plans, simply cannot afford a prolonged war. Its decision to fight is not a sign of strength, but a frantic attempt to salvage a failing economic and security model in a region where Iranian influence is ascendant.
Israel: A Fortress of Isolation
If Saudi Arabia is trapped, Israel is cornered. The country fought the wars, paid the price in blood and treasure, and transformed the security environment, significantly degrading Iran’s “axis of resistance.” However, as a recent analysis in The Jerusalem Post lamented, Israel now finds itself “watching others shape the regional order.” The US, while maintaining unprecedented military cooperation on the ground, is politically sidelining Israel to pursue its own grand bargain with Iran.
Israel is being told to sit on the sidelines of the very conflict it helped ignite. The ongoing negotiations with Iran, which exclude Israel, are a profound diplomatic humiliation that threatens its very existence. Moreover, the US relationship is showing signs of strain. Vice President JD Vance’s public accusations that Israel is trying to pressure the US into widening the war represent a shocking breach of decorum. Meanwhile, Washington is selling F-35s to Turkey and signing civilian nuclear deals with Saudi Arabia, moves that directly challenge Israel’s qualitative military edge. The “special relationship” is becoming purely transactional, and Israel, stripped of its diplomatic cover, stands exposed as a regional pariah relying on brute force. The strategy of maintaining buffer zones in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria is a temporary fix, not a permanent solution, and it offers no path to the diplomatic legitimacy Israel so desperately needs. As one analysis put it, Israel is being reduced to an “armed organization dependent on external patronage.”
The Inevitable Dawn of a New Order
The United States has made a cold, calculated decision to pivot away from the Middle East. Its priority is no longer the unconditional security of Israel or the protection of Saudi oil, but rather the prevention of a catastrophic nuclear conflict with Iran and the reallocation of resources to the Indo-Pacific. This new approach has rendered Saudi Arabia and Israel liabilities rather than assets.
No amount of bombing by Saudi or American jets will alter this fundamental power balance. The new Middle East is one where Iran is the dominant force, and its network of proxies—from the Houthis to the militias in Iraq—is the primary source of regional influence. The shift to a multipolar Middle East, with China brokering deals and Russia carving out footholds, is a death knell for the old order.
For Saudi Arabia, the current path is a suicide mission. Its relentless pursuit of a military solution will only bleed its economy and expose its vulnerabilities. The kingdom’s only viable future lies not in aligning with a departing hegemon, but in swallowing its pride and accepting Iran’s influence, much as it attempted to do with the China-brokered détente in 2023.
For Israel, the situation is even more existential. The shield of American protection is being withdrawn. In this new, harsher reality, Israel’s military superiority is not a substitute for political viability. The Jerusalem Post’s devastating conclusion is accurate: Israel has achieved tremendous tactical victories, only to see others—its allies included—steal the strategic prize. The days of a secure, US-backed Israel are numbered. While its military remains formidable, a state that can only survive through constant warfare and has no path to regional acceptance is a state whose future is bleak. The era of American hegemony is over, and for those who built their fortunes on it, the reckoning is finally here.
