Something very strange is happening about the on-going peace process for Ukraine. We are told that Ukraine will sign a deal with the United States for its rare earth elements (REEs). President Trump has suggested that the deal could yield up to $500 billion from rare earths alone, potentially reaching a total value of $1 trillion when including other resources.
The U.S. has proposed various terms, including a 50 percent ownership stake in Ukraine’s rare earth minerals as a means for Ukraine to repay U.S. military aid. More recent proposals demand all revenue from state and private resource operations be directed to a joint investment fund.
The deal is linked to ongoing U.S. support for Ukraine in its conflict with Russia. Trump has framed access to these minerals as a security matter and a way for the U.S. to recoup its investments in Ukraine.
Ukrainian officials have expressed skepticism and concern over the terms, with some describing them as “robbery.” Despite this, there have been indications that Ukraine might be open to negotiations to secure continued U.S. support. of course, it is yet another scam.
Rare Earth Elements (REEs) are a group of 17 metallic elements that include the 15 lanthanides (atomic numbers 57-71) plus scandium (atomic number 21) and yttrium (atomic number 39). Despite their name, REEs are not rare in terms of their abundance in the Earth’s crust; however, they are rarely found in sufficient concentrations to make mining economically viable. Other elements are lanthanum, cerium, praseodymium, neodymium, samarium, europium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, holmium, erbium, thulium, ytterbium, lutetium, scandium, and yttrium.
Despite Trump’s assertions, experts generally agree that Ukraine does not have significant or economically viable rare earth deposits. Geologists also note that Ukraine’s mining industry is not focused on rare earths.
Jack Lifton, Co-Chair of the Critical Minerals Institute, states that Ukraine lacks viable rare earth deposits, making investment in this area impractical compared to regions like Canada and Australia.
Laura Lewis, a professor at Northeastern University, and Erik Jonsson, a senior geologist at the Geological Survey of Sweden, both express skepticism about the existence of substantial rare earth deposits in Ukraine. They highlight the lack of credible evidence and outdated geological surveys.
Tony Mariano, an independent geologist consultant, notes that there are no economically viable rare earth deposits in Ukraine. He mentions that exploration efforts were abandoned due to difficult mining conditions and lack of viability.
John Mavrogenes, a professor of economic geology, states categorically that there are no known rare earth deposits in Ukraine.
Some 60 years ago, the Soviets also surveyed Ukraine for rare earths, and concluded that there were only trace amounts. Nothing to warrant any sort of investment.
Late last year, Roman Opimakh, former director general of the Ukrainian Geological Survey, said as much, though in a round-about way: “Unfortunately, there is no modern assessment of reserves.” The only known deposit, the one in Novopoltavskeh, was extensively explored in the past, and it was concluded that it was not worth investing in, since extracting rare earths requires the setup of extensive and this very costly infrastructure.
So, just what is it that President Trump keeps insisting that he wants to make a deal over? It is all very strange—that no one has bothered to inform him that Ukraine has no rare earths. Or, perhaps, DOGE has been firing everybody, and any expertise that might have existed is now gone? It is hard to say.
But the fact remains. Ukraine has no rare earths, and Trump keeps saying that he wants these non-existent rare earths, which he claims are worth $500 billion. This figure is impossible, since the total supply of rare earths, in the entire world, is valued at $12 billion. How can Ukraine hold five hundred billion dollars’ worth of $12 billion. It is unlikely that this figure of $500 billion would have been provided to Trump by the US Geological Survey, let alone any expert in the field, as noted above.
Either it is yet more amateur hour at the White House, or Trump has been handed this rosy picture by the Ukrainians? Which means that the entire narrative of “Ukrainian rare earths” is yet another Ukrainian hoax, designed to wangle more money, or get out from paying anything back to the USA. It would appear that the Ukrainians have successfully wangled trump into a mining stock fraud.
For those may not know, mining stock fraud involves a series of three inter-related scams.
First, there is the “Advance Fee Fraud,” where an investor is asked to pay upfront fees for services or investments that never materialize, or simply exist only on paper. The US has been sending Ukraine billions, all of it unaccounted for.
Next, comes the “Pig Butchering Scam,” where an investor is convinced into investing in fake mining operations with promises of high returns, only to be asked for more money under various pretexts. Trump seems ready to spend real money to dig up non-existent rare earths. Of course, most of this money will be funneled off and simply vanish.
Finally, there is “Salting,” or falsifying mineral samples to make them appear more valuable than they are. Hence, Trump’s optimistic vision of making billions in Ukrainian rare earths.
Does Trump not have access to real experts who might want to correct his delusion? Obviously, this has not happened, since he keeps repeating what we have summarized above. So, likely, it is the “perfect storm”—the usual arrogance and ignorance from the Trump administration, which the Ukrainians know how to exploit by handing them the classic mining stock fraud.
It will be interesting to see how much Trump ends up “investing” to dig up those rare earths, because they are certainly rare in Ukraine.
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